灰色预测法在情报研究中的应用研究综述     

张晶晶  李泽霞 《图书情报工作》2020,64(24):106-114

[目的/意义] 灰色预测法可有效处理情报研究中广泛存在的小样本数据，通过对灰色预测法在情报研究中的应用情况进行梳理，总结其在应用过程中存在的不足，为灰色预测法在情报研究中的进一步应用提供参考。[方法/过程] 通过综述情报研究中涉及灰色预测法的相关文献，从数据选取、模型构建和解决的问题等方面对情报研究中灰色预测法的应用进行概述，总结当前情报研究中灰色预测法的应用所存在的问题，并提出改进建议。[结果/结论] 在方法应用上，已有研究主要采用数列灰预测，且模型集中在单变量灰色预测模型，根据预测对象不同，灰色预测法已经在包括期刊分析、图书馆运行管理、热点主题分析及科研机构评价方面得到了很好的应用，未来可根据预测对象特点及研究目标尝试不同的灰色预测方法，扩宽灰色预测法在其他方面的情报研究问题中的应用。  相似文献   

基于DE-SVM的船舶航迹预测模型     

刘娇  史国友  杨学钱  朱凯歌 《上海海事大学学报》2020,41(1):34-39

为提高船舶航迹预测精度,解决准确建模难度大和神经网络易陷入局部最优的问题,考虑实时获取目标船AIS数据较少的特点,提出一种基于支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)的航迹预测模型。选择AIS数据中的航速、航向和船舶经纬度作为样本特征变量;采用小波阈值去噪的方法处理训练数据;采用差分进化(differential evolution,DE)算法对模型内部参数寻优以提高模型收敛速度和预测精度。选取天津港实船某段航迹的AIS数据,比较基于DE-SVM与基于BP神经网络的航迹预测模型的仿真结果。结果表明,基于DE-SVM的航迹预测模型具有更高的预测精度,简单、可行、高效,且耗时少。  相似文献   

基于隐马尔科夫模型的VLCC目的港预测     

杨春  王一丹  徐晖  胡勤友  潘亚兰 《上海海事大学学报》2020,41(4):42-49

超大型油船(very large crude carrier，VLCC)目的港预测对海运原油流向预测以及货源地未来运力估计具有重要作用。针对VLCC的AIS目的港信息存在缺失、更新不及时、不准确等现象，提出一种基于隐马尔科夫模型的VLCC目的港预测方法。分析船舶AIS轨迹数据，得到油船历史停靠港口序列；根据VLCC轨迹提取习惯航路，以航路中的交叉点为依据设置观测线；利用船舶航行轨迹数据判断船舶是否经过观测线以及经过观测线的方向，对不同方向分别计算船舶在挂靠港间的转移概率矩阵和船舶挂靠港与观测线间的输出概率矩阵，建立VLCC目的港预测模型并进行预测。研究结果表明：在大多数情况下VLCC目的港预测的准确率可以达到70%以上；航线越固定、运行越规律的船舶，预测准确率越高；船舶越靠近目的港，预测越准确；重载状态下的船舶目的港预测更准确。  相似文献   

唐代秘书省图书出版职能研究     

郭伟玲 《兰台世界》2020,(4):141-144

唐代秘书省作为中央图籍机构,在前雕版印刷时代承担起部分国家出版职能,主要表现在图书发行、图书复制、出版管理等方面,本文通过梳理秘书省的出版史实,分析唐代国家出版管理观念的主要内容,以唐宋之际出版职能的转移、丰富、提升为落脚点,对比分析唐代秘书省出版职能的历史局限性。  相似文献   

Location extraction from tweets     

Thi Bich Ngoc Hoang  Josiane Mothe 《Information processing & management》2018,54(2):129-144

Five hundred million tweets are posted daily, making Twitter a major social media platform from which topical information on events can be extracted. These events are represented by three main dimensions: time, location and entity-related information. The focus of this paper is location, which is an essential dimension for geo-spatial applications, either when helping rescue operations during a disaster or when used for contextual recommendations. While the first type of application needs high recall, the second is more precision-oriented. This paper studies the recall/precision trade-off, combining different methods to extract locations. In the context of short posts, applying tools that have been developed for natural language is not sufficient given the nature of tweets which are generally too short to be linguistically correct. Also bearing in mind the high number of posts that need to be handled, we hypothesize that predicting whether a post contains a location or not could make the location extractors more focused and thus more effective. We introduce a model to predict whether a tweet contains a location or not and show that location prediction is a useful pre-processing step for location extraction. We define a number of new tweet features and we conduct an intensive evaluation. Our findings are that (1) combining existing location extraction tools is effective for precision-oriented or recall-oriented results, (2) enriching tweet representation is effective for predicting whether a tweet contains a location or not, (3) words appearing in a geography gazetteer and the occurrence of a preposition just before a proper noun are the two most important features for predicting the occurrence of a location in tweets, and (4) the accuracy of location extraction improves when it is possible to predict that there is a location in a tweet.  相似文献   

Coupled matrix factorization and topic modeling for aspect mining     

Ding Xiao  Yugang Ji  Yitong Li  Fuzhen Zhuang  Chuan Shi 《Information processing & management》2018,54(6):861-873

Aspect mining, which aims to extract ad hoc aspects from online reviews and predict rating or opinion on each aspect, can satisfy the personalized needs for evaluation of specific aspect on product quality. Recently, with the increase of related research, how to effectively integrate rating and review information has become the key issue for addressing this problem. Considering that matrix factorization is an effective tool for rating prediction and topic modeling is widely used for review processing, it is a natural idea to combine matrix factorization and topic modeling for aspect mining (or called aspect rating prediction). However, this idea faces several challenges on how to address suitable sharing factors, scale mismatch, and dependency relation of rating and review information. In this paper, we propose a novel model to effectively integrate Matrix factorization and Topic modeling for Aspect rating prediction (MaToAsp). To overcome the above challenges and ensure the performance, MaToAsp employs items as the sharing factors to combine matrix factorization and topic modeling, and introduces an interpretive preference probability to eliminate scale mismatch. In the hybrid model, we establish a dependency relation from ratings to sentiment terms in phrases. The experiments on two real datasets including Chinese Dianping and English Tripadvisor prove that MaToAsp not only obtains reasonable aspect identification but also achieves the best aspect rating prediction performance, compared to recent representative baselines.  相似文献   

基于短时交通流量预测对路网微观交通仿真的研究     

张虎 《苏州市职业大学学报》2021,(1)

针对早高峰短时交通流量预测数据少、波动大的特点,提出用灰色模型进行预测。将灰色GM(2,1)改进为灰色GM(2,1,λ,ρ)预测模型,以提高预测精度。针对粒子群算法(PSO)的早熟现象,将Logistic混沌搜索嵌入到PSO算法,应用混沌粒子群算法(CPSO)寻找灰色GM(2,1,λ,ρ)预测模型最优的参数λ和ρ。结合两者提出了基于CPSO–GM(2,1,λ,ρ)的早高峰短时交通流预测模型。利用VISSIM对研究路网进行微观交通仿真,通过VISSIM–Excel、VBA–Matlab平台实现了短时交通流量预测和路网微观交通仿真数据的交互,对集成交通控制系统的架构进行了方案设计。仿真结果表明,结合流量预测的路网优于固定信号配时下的路网仿真。  相似文献   

A multi-nation examination of the fatigue and recovery time course during the inaugural Under-18 Six Nations rugby union competition     

Carlos Ramírez-López  Kevin Till  Thomas Sawczuk  Pierosario Giuliano  Alexis Peeters  Grant Beasley 《Journal of sports sciences》2020,38(6):644-651

  相似文献   

Acute cardiovascular responses to interval exercise: A systematic review and meta-analysis     

Kym Joanne Price  Brett Ashley Gordon  Stephen Richard Bird  Amanda Clare Benson 《Journal of sports sciences》2020,38(9):970-984

ABSTRACT

Interval exercise training is increasingly recommended to improve health and fitness; however, it is not known if cardiovascular risk is different from continuous exercise protocols. This systematic review with meta-analyses assessed the effect of a single bout of interval exercise on cardiovascular responses that indicate risk of cardiac fibrillation and infarction compared to continuous exercise. Electronic databases Medline, CINAHL, Embase, Scopus and Cochrane were searched. Key inclusion criteria were: (1) intervals of the same intensity and duration followed by a recovery period and (2) reporting at least one of blood pressure, heart rate variability, arterial stiffness or function. Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and GRADE approach were used. Meta-analyses found that systolic blood pressure responses to interval exercise did not differ from responses to continuous exercise immediately (MD 8 mmHg [95% CI ?32, 47], p = 0.71) or at 60 min following exercise (MD 0 mmHg [95% CI ?2, 1], p = 0.79). However, reductions in diastolic blood pressure and flow-mediated dilation with interval exercise were observed 10–15 min post-exercise. The available evidence indicates that interval exercise does not convey higher cardiovascular risk than continuous exercise. Further investigation is required to establish the safety of interval exercise for clinical populations.  相似文献   

12周惯性哑铃练习对轻度认知损害老年人的干预效果     

吕娇娇  黄灵燕  刘宇 《上海体育学院学报》2020,(5):63-69,80

目的观察12周惯性哑铃练习对轻度认知损害(MCI)老年人认知功能、身体活动能力、生活质量和睡眠质量的影响,并探讨认知改善与其他功能改变之间的关系。方法将45名MCI老年人随机分为干预组(n=22)和对照组(n=23)。干预组受试者进行惯性哑铃练习(3次/周,60 min/次,持续12周),对照组不进行运动干预。结果 12周后,干预组受试者阿尔茨海默病评定量表-认知部分(ADAS-Cog)总分/指令得分、蒙特利尔认知评估量表(MoCA)评分、起立行走计时(TUG)和SF-36健康调查问卷(SF-36)心理总得分均显著改善(均P<0.05)。与对照组相比,干预组受试者ADAS-Cog总分/单词回忆得分/注意力得分、简明精神量表(MMSE)评分、TUG和匹兹堡睡眠指数(PSQI)的改善程度均具有显著差异(P<0.05或P=0.05)。偏相关分析结果显示,SF-36心理总得分改变(r=-0.712)、PSQI改变(r=-0.380)与认知改善程度均呈显著负相关。结论 12周惯性哑铃练习可显著提高MCI老年人的认知功能,并对其移动能力、生活质量和睡眠质量具有积极影响,且心理和睡眠改变程度可能影响认知功能的改善效果。  相似文献